






Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt prices dropped slightly. On the supply side, refined cobalt smelters maintained long-term contract supplies, with fewer spot orders, and ex-factory prices remained unchanged due to production costs. Domestic futures market prices fell due to market news, and both traders' quotes and transaction prices followed the downward trend. On the demand side, as the social inventory of refined cobalt remains high and downstream demand weakened under high temperatures, most downstream producers continued just-in-time procurement, leading to sluggish actual transactions. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, and future price trends need to closely monitor cost increases and social inventory digestion.
Intermediate Products:
This week, the spot price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise, with some transactions at around 12.3 at the beginning of the week. However, as cobalt salt prices increased, some companies reported that purchase offers around 12.3-12.4 could not be concluded by mid-week. On the supply side, most companies, maintaining a bullish outlook, suspended their quotes, while a few raised their prices. On the demand side, smelters faced losses due to production costs and weak downstream demand. In an uncertain situation, most companies focused on consuming their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories inquired about the market but offered lower prices than sellers, resulting in limited transactions. Overall, influenced by the DRC's policy extension, China's cobalt intermediate products will face raw material shortages, providing upward momentum for prices. However, attention should be paid to how rising raw material prices may suppress downstream demand.
Cobalt Sulphate:
This week, cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly, with market transaction prices increasing to 4.9-5.2, and many companies reported transactions around 50,000 yuan. Some large factories also had a certain volume of transactions around 5.2. On the supply side, companies maintained a bullish sentiment, gradually raising new goods' quotes, and some traders also increased old goods' prices. On the demand side, downstream demand was mixed. Ternary orders did not show significant improvement, and the market was mainly observing and digesting previous inventories. Four-cobalt and traditional chemical enterprises, currently enjoying better prices, made some purchases. Refined cobalt, due to its poor economics, paused purchasing. Overall, the market's inquiry willingness improved this week, and actual transactions increased compared to previous weeks. Under the influence of continuously rising raw material costs, it is expected that cobalt sulphate prices will remain strong next week.
Cobalt Chloride:
Current cobalt chloride company quotes are 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with market trading volumes higher than before. On the supply side, smelters still held a wait-and-see attitude, resulting in limited market transactions. On the demand side, downstream enterprises had relatively sufficient inventory levels, actively inquiring about the market, but remained cautious about buying and selling. Price-wise, the current actual transaction price is around 6.2, with a few deals at 63,000 yuan/mt. It is expected that cobalt chloride prices will remain stable within the 6.1-6.3 price range in the short term.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
Current Co3O4 company quotes are between 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with some companies suspending their quotes. Both upstream and downstream players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, with limited actual transactions, mostly long-term contract deliveries. On the supply side, Co3O4 plants are observing the overall market sentiment and demand, with only a small amount of shipments. On the demand side, LCO cathode plants have relatively low inventories, but the overall market is heavily influenced by sentiment, leading to a wait-and-see approach. Price-wise, Co3O4 plants expect shipment prices to be between 210,000-230,000 yuan/mt, but high-priced Co3O4 transactions are still rare. In the long term, Co3O4 prices are still affected by cobalt inventory, and whether the current industry inventory can support until December is key to the price trend.
Cobalt Powder and Others:
This week, cobalt powder market quotes were stable, with sluggish transactions, and downstream players mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude. During the last two price hikes, downstream players made some purchases and individual restocking actions, but the current purchase willingness is low. The cost of tungsten carbide, which accounts for 90% of the hard alloy cost, is over 370,000 yuan, while cobalt powder accounts for 10%. On the recycling side, cobalt powder recycling volume is low, mainly focusing on new raw materials containing tungsten and cobalt. Although these materials are clean and can reduce costs, the rising tungsten price has narrowed the price gap between recycled and virgin materials. Alloy demand has not been fully released, and there may be an increase this year.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose slightly. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt sulphate prices increased, driving up the absolute price of precursors. Currently, the discount coefficient for spot orders has not changed significantly. Downstream battery cell manufacturers still hold the power over the discount coefficient and have not strongly reacted to the increase in cobalt sulphate prices, keeping the overall discount strategy stable. It is expected that long-term contract discounts will not change significantly in the short term. On the demand side, domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products has increased, and overseas demand for 8-series products has also risen slightly, but overall orders are concentrated among top-tier manufacturers. The consumer market remains mediocre. On the supply side, with July entering a phase of restocking, overall production schedules are expected to rebound slightly. However, against the backdrop of weak terminal demand, ternary cathode precursor prices lack long-term support for sustained increases.
Ternary Cathode Material:
This week, 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series ternary cathode material prices all showed a slight upward trend. In terms of raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices remained stable, while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices increased significantly; lithium hydroxide prices, however, continued to fall slightly. Demand performance was mixed. Domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products was relatively concentrated, with orders mainly flowing to top-tier manufacturers. Recent terminal auto sales were mediocre, and the material end mainly maintained existing long-term supply contracts. In the overseas NEV market, the impending cancellation of EV tax credits may lead to a short-term surge in sales. However, in the long term, the US market's demand for ternary power batteries is concerning and may impact some domestic cathode material suppliers. In the context of weak terminal demand and increased market volatility, optimizing customer structure is key for cathode material manufacturers to secure market share. On the supply side, driven by a slight restocking in July, production is expected to increase. However, the ternary cathode material market has been in a state of supply surplus for a long time, limiting long-term growth potential.
Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO):
Recently, LCO prices have seen a significant increase due to changes in raw material costs: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have continued to rise, and Co3O4 prices, influenced by DRC policies, have shown a strong upward trend. On the supply side, Co3O4 companies' high quotes have led to low purchase willingness from LCO cathode plants. On the demand side, as the terminal demand enters the off-season, the demand for LCO has decreased. Overall, LCO prices are expected to rise significantly along with the increase in Co3O4 and lithium carbonate prices.
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News:
[H1, China's power and other battery cumulative exports reached 127.3GWh, up 56.8% YoY] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released the June 2025 monthly information on power batteries. In June, China's power and other battery combined exports were 24.4GWh, up 27.9% MoM and 22.5% YoY. Combined exports accounted for 18.5% of the month's sales. Among them, power battery exports were 15.8GWh, accounting for 65.0% of total exports, up 17.1% MoM and 16.6% YoY; other battery exports were 8.5GWh, accounting for 35.0% of total exports, up 54.7% MoM and 35.2% YoY. From January to June, China's power and other battery cumulative exports reached 127.3GWh, up 56.8% YoY. Combined cumulative exports accounted for 19.3% of the first six months' cumulative sales. Among them, power battery cumulative exports were 81.6GWh, accounting for 64.1% of total exports, up 26.5% YoY; other battery cumulative exports were 45.6GWh, accounting for 35.9% of total exports, up 174.6% YoY.
[China Automobile Dealers Association: June Auto Dealer Inventory Coefficient at 1.42, Up 1.4% YoY] The China Automobile Dealers Association (CADA) released on July 10 its June 2025 "Auto Dealer Inventory" survey results: The comprehensive inventory coefficient for auto dealers reached 1.42 in June, up 2.9% MoM and 1.4% YoY. Inventory levels remained below the warning line but exceeded the reasonable range. Based on statistics from CADA's Passenger Vehicle Branch, comprehensive projections indicate end-user passenger vehicle sales reached 2.084 million units in June, translating to an estimated total dealer inventory of approximately 2.95 million units by month-end. (Finance News)
[CAAM: NEVs Accounted for 48.6% of Domestic Auto Sales in June] CAAM data shows that in June, new energy vehicles (NEVs) constituted 48.6% of domestic auto sales, with passenger NEVs representing 51.8% of passenger vehicle domestic sales and commercial NEVs accounting for 25.2% of commercial vehicle domestic sales. From January to June, NEVs comprised 46.8% of total domestic auto sales, passenger NEVs reached 50.4% of passenger vehicle domestic sales, and commercial NEVs represented 21.8% of commercial vehicle domestic sales.
SMM New Energy Research Team
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